In a world where traditional benchmarks are faltering, leadership is facing a profound crisis. We are no longer confronted with calculable risks, but with genuine uncertainty — a situation that calls into question our individual, collective, and societal mental models. This rupture requires us to reconsider our understanding of leadership. But on what basis?
Traditionally, leaders were seen as knowledgeable individuals with an overview, embodying the model of the rational actor with epistemic power. They set the goal, showed the way forward, protected their teams, and exercised control through order and direction. The leader knew where to go and how to get there. The promise was: “Follow me because I know where to go, and by following me, you will be protected.”
However, the current climate of uncertainty makes it impossible to keep this promise. It is impossible to possess all the necessary knowledge and have an overview when everything is changing too quickly amid ambiguity and complexity. Decisions must be made with only a fraction of the desired information, which is ambiguous at best. As for showing the way, how can this be done when landmarks change frequently, sometimes suddenly, and must be redefined each time? Leaders can no longer serve as a protective shield, and the traditional relationship of obedience breaks down under the weight of doubt arising from what looks very much like indecision. The promise is no longer tenable — everyone knows it — and trust disappears. However, without trust, there can be no collective action and paralysis sets in.
The trap
Faced with this situation, there are two pitfalls. The first is to pretend that nothing has changed. Even worse is to reinforce the historical traits of leadership by demanding more authority, vision and expertise, and a safer path. In short, it is to do ‘more of the same’. But this is not a viable strategy. Everyone knows what is happening. No one is fooled. Today’s employees are better educated and more informed than ever before. Pretending otherwise would destroy what little credibility and trust remains. A second pitfall is nihilism, which challenges the very notion of leadership by arguing that leadership has no meaning if it is no longer capable of pointing towards a goal. This is tempting, but wrong. While the traditional model of leadership based on expertise and knowledge may be outdated, the concept of leadership itself remains relevant. We simply need to invent a new model that is in tune with the times.
Accept reality.
To do this, we must accept uncertainty and encourage others to do the same. The message is this: “In today’s world, we can no longer pretend to know where we will be in five years, or even six months. Let’s stop pretending to believe it.’ This recognition is not pleasant. In fact, it is legitimately anxiety-provoking. However, we must accept this reality if we want to rebuild something solid. It is a process of mourning and learning.
However, this reality only causes anxiety because we believe that predicting the future is essential for moving forward. We see uncertainty as a risk. However, it can also present tremendous opportunities. The world is not set in stone. Well, we can write it! Understanding this is the second part of the learning process.
It represents a shift in attitude. We are moving from prediction, which is now either impossible or too risky, to creative control, which is entirely in our hands. It’s about accepting that an inability to predict is not a problem in itself. The future cannot be predicted, but it can be shaped collectively. In the face of uncertainty, we can forge our own path. This entrepreneurial dimension of leadership consists of identifying what we can rely on and influence in our environment.
The two pillars are meaning and trust.
This approach enables a collective reconstruction of meaning. This is important because a world that loses its bearings no longer has meaning. Although we often hear that leaders must give or restore meaning to their employees, this expression is unfortunate because it is an anachronism. As adults and well-informed individuals, people no longer wait for meaning to be handed to them. They want to create it themselves. If old models are failing, new ones must be created collectively if they are to be solid and firmly rooted. Leaders no longer think about the world alone; they co-create meaning with the collective.
This collective work on meaning is important beyond its practical scope. Shared models form the basis of the collective. When shaken by uncertainty, it is around new or renewed models that the collective recreates itself. These shared models are the source of trust that makes the collective sustainable and solid. This is no coincidence, as the word ‘trust’ comes from the Latin ‘cum fides’, meaning ‘shared belief’. Trust exists when we share models. Essentially, we can say: ‘We don’t know where this will lead, but we trust each other to move forward creatively nonetheless.’ And so, despite the perils, we can move forward joyfully. Essentially, leaders can embrace David Bowie’s quote: ‘I don’t know where we’re going, but I promise you it won’t be boring.’
Psychological safety
The best way to establish psychological safety for employees is to identify the controllable elements of an unpredictable future that allow us to act. This safety no longer involves masking reality by providing protection; rather, it involves restoring the capacity for concrete action. In a sense, it is like marking out a creative playing field. This regained capacity for action enables us to overcome the paralysis caused by uncertainty and the anxiety it generates. It is also a source of motivation. This is because when a person regains their ability to act, they regain energy for themselves and for the company.
Ultimately, if uncertainty has one virtue, it is perhaps that it brings an end to a toxic, heroic form of leadership that places an excessive burden on managers. Leaders no longer need to be the ones who know everything, but rather the ones who enable others to succeed. Rather than showing the way, they must now chart the course with their teams.
🇫🇷 A version in French of this article is available here.
✚ Previous articles on uncertainty: 📄The reality advantage: Practical management lessons from Kipling’s Kim, 📄To reduce uncertainty, try cooperation!.
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