How can uncertainty be reduced? This is the question that is preoccupying all executive committees in France and the rest of the world in these troubled times. The most obvious temptation is to mobilize the arsenal of predictive thinking: foresight, scenarios, modeling, customer surveys, and nowadays, of course, AI. However, uncertainty is not resolved through forecasting, but through action. And in this regard, the most powerful action is cooperation. One blind person holding the hand of another blind person? Not necessarily: cooperation means that we no longer need to predict in order to act creatively and move forward without being paralyzed.
Suppose my startup has developed a new, highly innovative product: a green chair. I believe that, in the future, customers will ask for green chairs. When I met with my first customer, he said, “Not bad, but I want it in blue.” He believes that blue chairs are the future. Who is right? It’s impossible to say because we’re talking about the future. What can I do? Option one: I could go back to my workshop and repaint my chair blue. This would mean adapting to events that I could not have predicted. The second possibility is that: I could look for another customer interested in green chairs because I still believe in my prediction. Third possibility: I can act like a visionary and try to convince my customer that he is wrong and that green chairs are the future, not blue ones. The problem is that none of these options resolves the uncertainty. Even if I adapt to the client’s request and present him with a beautiful blue chair after a few weeks, I have no guarantee that he will buy it: he may have changed his mind, bought other chairs, or asked for additional modifications in the meantime. Therefore, I am embarking on an uncertain, costly path with no guarantee.
Commitment reduces uncertainty
There is a fourth possibility: I agree to modify the chair in blue on the condition that the customer commits to buying ten upon delivery. I ask him to commit to the blue chair alongside me. If he agrees, we will sign a contract, and the uncertainty will no longer exist. Once both parties commit to a goal, the relationship between them becomes predictable. The contract replaces the question, “What should I do?” with risk, such as the risk that my client will refuse to honor the contract or go bankrupt in the meantime, or that I will fail to modify the product. However, these risks are manageable through compensation, insurance, or legal action. We have formidable tools to manage it.
Thus, cooperation is one of the best ways to avoid paralysis in an uncertain environment. When two parties commit to doing something in the short term, the uncertainty between them disappears. Then, they start again together or with others and move forward in small steps, gradually eliminating uncertainty through their commitments. The group that gradually forms in this way is characterized by an absence of internal uncertainty in the face of external uncertainty. A commitment is a promise to act predictably toward a specific, immediate goal. A true commitment requires the consumption of resources by the person making it. Vague promises or encouragement are not commitments.
This is not new: joining forces with others to face the world’s uncertainties has always been the hallmark of our species, Homo sapiens. If I am alone in the savannah, my next meal is uncertain. My survival is also highly uncertain. However, if I join forces with others to create a tribe, the uncertainty decreases. Everyone commits to contributing to the group. We hunt and defend ourselves together, and the group becomes a place where uncertainty is reduced. This is why the group is Sapiens’ greatest invention for surviving and thriving in an uncertain world. The group makes uncertainty less daunting. We create organizations for the same reason. Collectively, we are more certain of our ability to respond to the challenges we face.
Friends
So, when faced with uncertainty and the temptation to retreat into ourselves, feeling fearful and anxious, we must open up and seek partnerships to move forward creatively. Are you gripped by uncertainty? Seek out friends!
🇫🇷 A version in French of this article is available here.
📬 If you liked this article, why not subscribe to be notified of the next one?