decision making, Management, uncertainty

Turning Uncertainty into Performance: the role of Processes

Processes, uncertainty, performance: three words that are used constantly, rarely together, and almost never with precision. Yet their relationship is at the heart of what distinguishes an organization that masters its activity from one that improvises. Because a process is not just a tool for standardization—it is the way in which an organization gradually transforms novelty into something manageable. Understanding this mechanism changes the way we manage an organization, diagnose its weaknesses, and evaluate what really works—and why.

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innovation

Are mental models the key to the next stage of AI?

Despite its spectacular results, particularly since ChatGPT’s release in 2022, AI faces a significant structural limitation today: it relies on superficial statistical correlations rather than a profound comprehension of the laws of reality. AI is incapable of true causal reasoning, resulting in logical hallucinations and an inability to plan complex tasks over the long term. This lack of internal structure renders learning extremely inefficient, necessitating vast amounts of data when a human would require only a few examples to comprehend and predict a new situation. It is precisely this idea of “internal structure” that could enable the next big step in AI: the use of mental models.

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strategy

The real lesson from Ukraine: in uncertainty, strategy is a matter of models.

Sticking to an outdated worldview is a universal risk, especially in times of rapid change, and one of the most dangerous. The war in Ukraine is a striking example of this. In just a few years, the battlefield has undergone a complete reinvention: drones are ubiquitous, information is available in real time, and responses occur within minutes. Military certainties that had been solid for decades became obsolete overnight. In a rapidly and unpredictably changing world, the ability to question one’s models is not just a competitive advantage; it’s a matter of survival. This places new demands on strategic thinking for military staff and organizations alike.

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Uncategorized

Is ambition possible in uncertainty?

We live in uncertain times. The future seems unclear due to climate change, geopolitics, and technological change. Faced with this uncertainty, many people give up on making plans. Any ambition seems impossible. Why aim high when everything could change tomorrow? This resignation is based on two misunderstandings: one about what uncertainty is, and the other about what ambition is.

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decision making, Strategic surprise

Resolving uncertainty with AI, or the scientist illusion of management

“With AI, it’s now easier to resolve uncertainty,” a business leader recently told me with confidence, arguing that with the mass of data now available and the almost infinite capacity to analyze it, the subject was more or less closed. This is a widespread, long-held belief… and a very false one at that, a scientistic illusion of management that refuses to die. The link between data and uncertainty is much more complex. Without a thorough understanding of this link, decision-making in uncertainty is based on flawed models, with catastrophic consequences.

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decision making, Leadership, Management, uncertainty

Charting Your Course: Leadership in the Face of Uncertainty

In a world where traditional benchmarks are faltering, leadership is facing a profound crisis. We are no longer confronted with calculable risks, but with genuine uncertainty — a situation that calls into question our individual, collective, and societal mental models. This rupture requires us to reconsider our understanding of leadership. But on what basis?

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Management, transformation

Why Organizations Struggle with Collaborative Efforts

In an increasingly complex world, collaboration has become essential. Executives and consultants tout its benefits, including increased innovation, knowledge sharing, organizational agility, and optimized collective performance. However, the considerable efforts required to develop collaboration often yield disappointing results. The imperative to collaborate often goes unheeded, and everyone returns to their silo. Why is collaboration, with its obvious benefits, so difficult? Because collaborative efforts come at a cost.

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decision making, entrepreneurship, uncertainty

To reduce uncertainty, try cooperation!

How can uncertainty be reduced? This is the question that is preoccupying all executive committees in France and the rest of the world in these troubled times. The most obvious temptation is to mobilize the arsenal of predictive thinking: foresight, scenarios, modeling, customer surveys, and nowadays, of course, AI. However, uncertainty is not resolved through forecasting, but through action. And in this regard, the most powerful action is cooperation. One blind person holding the hand of another blind person? Not necessarily: cooperation means that we no longer need to predict in order to act creatively and move forward without being paralyzed.

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innovation, Society

The Navy’s star lesson: Why fundamental skills matter more than ever in the age of AI

When discussing the rapid advance of technologies such as AI, two opposing reactions emerge: a strong fear of the consequences (“The accounting profession will disappear”) and unbridled enthusiasm (“Everyone can be a Michelangelo now!”). Both reactions assume that professional skills will become less important in the face of machines. However, this is far from certain. An interesting decision made by the US Navy sheds light on this issue.

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decision making, Management, transformation

Stuck in their projects? Why managers should learn about politics

There is a paradox in business: many of those who are supposed to lead it sometimes admit their inability to move forward with their innovation or transformation projects. And this is not just true of middle managers. I often hear people say, “There’s nothing I can do at my level”. Coming from senior executives, this admission is surprising. The reason is often that these leaders have not recognized the political dimension of their role. By political dimension, we mean the ability to influence the group to move in a particular direction, in this case, to move stalled projects forward. This ability rarely rests on formal authority; it must be built. A useful historical example is how Lyndon Johnson managed to dominate the US Senate before becoming President of the United States.

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