Category: uncertainty

decision making, Economy and society, uncertainty

Profit? Superprofit? TotalEnergies and the Forgotten Lessons of Economists Knight and Demsetz

In these times of soaring energy prices, the profits of companies in the sector are causing controversy. This is particularly true for TotalEnergies. Every time it releases its earnings, the same scenario plays out. Profits are labeled “superprofits,” the term circulates unquestioned, and the conclusion is self-evident: they must be taxed. The reasoning seems obvious. Yet it rests on a questionable understanding of what profit is, economically speaking. Two little-known economists, Frank Knight in 1921 and Harold Demsetz in 1973, offered explanations that deserve to be revisited in light of the current debate.

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decision making, Management, uncertainty

Turning Uncertainty into Performance: the role of Processes

Processes, uncertainty, performance: three words that are used constantly, rarely together, and almost never with precision. Yet their relationship is at the heart of what distinguishes an organization that masters its activity from one that improvises. Because a process is not just a tool for standardization—it is the way in which an organization gradually transforms novelty into something manageable. Understanding this mechanism changes the way we manage an organization, diagnose its weaknesses, and evaluate what really works—and why.

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decision making, Leadership, Management, uncertainty

Charting Your Course: Leadership in the Face of Uncertainty

In a world where traditional benchmarks are faltering, leadership is facing a profound crisis. We are no longer confronted with calculable risks, but with genuine uncertainty — a situation that calls into question our individual, collective, and societal mental models. This rupture requires us to reconsider our understanding of leadership. But on what basis?

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decision making, entrepreneurship, uncertainty

To reduce uncertainty, try cooperation!

How can uncertainty be reduced? This is the question that is preoccupying all executive committees in France and the rest of the world in these troubled times. The most obvious temptation is to mobilize the arsenal of predictive thinking: foresight, scenarios, modeling, customer surveys, and nowadays, of course, AI. However, uncertainty is not resolved through forecasting, but through action. And in this regard, the most powerful action is cooperation. One blind person holding the hand of another blind person? Not necessarily: cooperation means that we no longer need to predict in order to act creatively and move forward without being paralyzed.

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Management, strategy, uncertainty

Defending the inner flame in the face of uncertainty: Who will be the Vestals of your organization?

In a world riddled with uncertainty, organizations often falter despite possessing a strong, historical identity—an inner flame that should anchor them. However, this potent force remains underutilized because it’s felt but seldom articulated or embraced. Actively nurturing this core identity is not just beneficial; it’s a strategic imperative.

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decision making, Management, strategy, uncertainty

Singularity, the ultimate resource in the face of adversity

In times of turmoil and pervasive uncertainty, our instinct is to play it safe. We often retreat, conform to successful norms, and dampen our uniqueness to avoid risks. However, a compelling chapter from Apple’s 1997 turnaround tells a different story: embracing and asserting our distinctiveness might just be the secret to thriving amidst adversity.

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decision making, entrepreneurship, uncertainty

The pilot in the plane: When faced with uncertainty, move from prediction to control

The more uncertain the world, the more anxious we are, and the more we intensify our efforts to predict. It’s a paradox with no way out. The key to uncertainty is not prediction – which is dangerous – but control. This general attitude implies seven very concrete ideas for taking action and giving ourselves the opportunity to create something new that is our own.

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