The more uncertain the world, the more anxious we are, and the more we intensify our efforts to predict. It’s a paradox with no way out. The key to uncertainty is not prediction – which is dangerous – but control. This general attitude implies seven very concrete ideas for taking action and giving ourselves the opportunity to create something new that is our own.
The posture of control under uncertainty is highlighted by the fifth principle of the entrepreneurial approach to effectuation. This principle is called “The Pilot of the Airplane”. It states that entrepreneurs do not try to predict the future, but to control its creation. In my experience, this principle is always difficult to explain. It seems a bit abstract. The first reaction of those who discover it is usually to ask, “So what do I do in practice?”
But the picture speaks for itself: the pilot is the one who determines the direction and controls the trajectory. He controls the plane. He’s not like the passengers who sit passively in the back, trying to pass the time until they arrive. But not everything is under his control. The pilot is, of course, dependent on the weather and the mechanics. Many parameters are out of his control. So to be a pilot is to be aware of what you can and can’t control; it’s to chart your course in spite of, or even according to, the constraints that are imposed on you.
Seven key ideas
This principle doesn’t have an immediate concrete translation – it’s an attitude – but it encapsulates a number of important ideas that are directly applicable.
1) To control is not to be subjected; it’s to do something we want to do, not something others have planned or others think is necessary. We move from the necessary (moral imperative of myself or others) to something possible, but also acceptable or desirable to me. The first refusal is to follow the predictions of others, or at least to consider them with caution. To use other people’s predictions is to cede control of your future to them. It’s relying on how they see that future, how they might even want it to be.
2) To control is to do something that is your own. It’s about who you are. Prediction tells us what might be; control is about what we certainly want. To control, then, is to look at the future not as it is predicted by others, but as it might be, or more precisely, as we want it to be. The pilot of the plane starts with himself as the anchor to create the future he wants. The individual anchor will be the guide for action. Instead of starting from a disembodied ideal, we start from ourselves and take action. Each action makes us look at the immediate future from our singular point of view. “What do I know?” asked Montaigne. “What can I do with what I know and who I am?” we might add, recalling the first principle of effectuation.
3) To control is to create something that advances our being. Control is not a gratuitous exercise of power. It must serve the idea of progress, in the most modest sense. When her husband suddenly died and she was left destitute, Mrs. Tao, an illiterate Chinese woman, exercised her ability to control by refusing to be a beggar and cooking bowls of rice to sell to students. For her, this was a form of progress compared to being a beggar.
4) Control means not waiting for consensus on the direction to take. In a complex and diverse society, it’s impossible to reach a consensus on a desirable future. We will never agree on what we want the future to be. Control is primarily individual. But that doesn’t mean we can’t build it together. The idea here is to take up Montaigne’s observation that we can only reach the universal by starting from the individual. In this way, Montaigne overturns the false evidence that in order to create something in common, we must start from a shared ideal. Control is neither consensus nor agreement on a vision in terms of a desirable distant future. Control is starting from what we want, as an anchor.
5) To control is to make prediction unnecessary. Mrs. Tao doesn’t predict anything; she doesn’t know where it will take her, perhaps never further than cooking for students, but that’s not important. Cooking for students is enough for now. She has progressed in her being: she’s a cook! The students buy her bowls of rice, and they’re grateful! Tomorrow is another day, and tomorrow she can start again with the same attitude. This attitude of creation and control allows us to move forward in the direction we want to go, without needing to know where it will ultimately lead us.
6) To control is not to ignore or crush others, but to deal with them. When Thomas Edison wanted to promote the then-new electric light, he knew how to make concessions where necessary while preserving the core of his innovation and finding allies. The most effective way to control is to build a patchwork, a collective work in which each person draws on his or her individuality to create something new. This is the third principle of effectuation.
7) To control is to give oneself the possibility of creating something new. If the world cannot be predicted, then it must be created. Its creation is the result of our actions. The act of creation begins with a refusal to follow what others do. This refusal is a prerequisite, a condition for making one’s own way. Eventually, Mrs Tao created a worldwide brand of spicy sauce and she is now a star entrepreneur in China.
Ultimate Creation
This “something new” made possible by the control posture is our ultimate creation. The pilot in the plane is the creation of the magnum opus; our magnum opus. It may seem small to others, but it’s huge to us because it’s ours. It’s the small space we’ve created for ourselves, where we don’t suffer others, but work with them in a balanced relationship to make it grow. In the face of uncertainty, stop trying to predict at all costs. Identify what you can control, especially with partners, and move forward from there.
🇫🇷 French version of this article here.
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