Tag: prediction

decision making, entrepreneurship, uncertainty

The pilot in the plane: When faced with uncertainty, move from prediction to control

The more uncertain the world, the more anxious we are, and the more we intensify our efforts to predict. It’s a paradox with no way out. The key to uncertainty is not prediction – which is dangerous – but control. This general attitude implies seven very concrete ideas for taking action and giving ourselves the opportunity to create something new that is our own.

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Economy and society, uncertainty

The Pitfall of Assumptions in Forecasting: Lessons from “Losing the War with Japan”

In the realm of economic and geopolitical forecasting, the pitfalls of assumptions can prove both humbling and enlightening. A striking example of this can be found in the Frontline report titled “Losing the War with Japan,” which takes us back to a moment in 1991 when prevailing beliefs about Japan’s economic supremacy and America’s decline were pervasive.  

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decision making, uncertainty

Challenging Cassandra – The two risks of predictions in uncertainty

We live in a time of great uncertainty, where many predictions and strongly held beliefs have been brutally disproved by the facts, especially in the last three years. And yet, we continue to make predictions. This seems rational: we want to protect ourselves against bad surprises and prepare for the worst. But this preparation comes at a significant cost.

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innovation, Management, uncertainty

In uncertainty, what can you control?

In times of uncertainty, our instinct is to predict, but history shows that predicting the future is difficult. The problem goes deeper than prediction; it’s the misconception that prediction equals control. But there’s a more nuanced connection between prediction and control, one that suggests the potential of separating prediction from control and reveals that our inability to predict the distant future can lead to unexpected opportunities and innovation.

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Strategic surprise, uncertainty

Covid-19: Four Rules for the Decision-Maker to Work with Experts in the Face of an Unprecedented Event

[Version française disponible ici]

The situation has become familiar with the covid-19 epidemics, and in particular with the controversy over the use of chloroquine: everyone has an opinion and groups are being formed in favor or against it. Yet regularly, people are being called to order by others who demand that only experts should be allowed to talk on issues relating to the management of the epidemy. The message seems to have been heard: for the past three weeks, doctors have been massively present on television sets. The country has become a large proxy medical consultation room. But the question remains: faced with a complex and unprecedented situation such as the coronavirus, who has the right to speak out? To what extent can experts be trusted? More importantly, how can the decision-maker work with them?

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