The traditional decision-making model, rooted in the ideal of the rational actor calculating the best decision with perfect information, is increasingly inadequate in our complex, uncertain world. When information is scarce or inadequate, judgment and imagination must be used instead.(more…)
Can seemingly weak signals have the potential to reveal significant future events? The answer lies in the delicate balance between detection and interpretation, where our assumptions shape our understanding.(more…)
If you think forecasting is rational and objective, based on facts and data generated by dispassionate experts, think again. In fact, what we predict reflects who we are. A case in point is Théry Report on the Internet. It provides a fascinating case study of the dangerous interplay between expertise, identity, and technological foresight.(more…)
My new book “Welcome to uncertainty!” will be available on September 28th.
The 2008 financial crisis, Brexit, the election of Donald Trump, the Covid-19 epidemic, the invasion of Ukraine, the return of inflation, and what next? The list of surprises keeps growing. Against this backdrop, a new perspective on forecasting is imperative. How can we thrive in a world we can’t predict?
Drawing on the author’s extensive research and real-world insights from working with leaders of all types of organizations, this book :
– Reveals the nature of our unpredictable reality,
– Addresses decision making amidst information scarcity, and
– Equips organizations to thrive in uncertain waters.
Essential reading for leaders, innovators, and those determined to harness the potential of change, this book is your compass in an uncertain and ever-evolving landscape.
📭 ▶️▶️▶️Pre-orders on Amazon are available here.
A 🇫🇷 French version of the book published by Diateino is available here.
The Covid-19 crisis completely disrupted the strategy of all organizations, reducing plans to nothing. Like any disruption, it corresponded to a process in development whose consequences unfolded, and continue to unfold, progressively on all levels: sanitary, social, economic, but also political and geo-political. It was followed two years later by another disruption, the invasion of Ukraine, which had a similar effect. For organizations, such disruptions impose a complete revision not only of their strategy, but of the way it is defined and of the fundamental beliefs on which the process is based, and in particular on how decisions are made in an organization. It requires a rethink of strategy, management and leadership.(more…)
[version en français ici]
How can an organization not only protect itself from uncertainty, but more importantly take advantage of it? The question is a hot one these days. It preoccupies many strategists, jumping from one crisis to another in a world that has become highly unstable and full of surprises. One source of inspiration, perhaps unexpected, is the German army, which built, from the end of the 19th century, a very powerful leadership model from which we can learn a lot.(more…)
We live in a time of great uncertainty, where many predictions and strongly held beliefs have been brutally disproved by the facts, especially in the last three years. And yet, we continue to make predictions. This seems rational: we want to protect ourselves against bad surprises and prepare for the worst. But this preparation comes at a significant cost.(more…)
In times of uncertainty, our instinct is to predict, but history shows that predicting the future is difficult. The problem goes deeper than prediction; it’s the misconception that prediction equals control. But there’s a more nuanced connection between prediction and control, one that suggests the potential of separating prediction from control and reveals that our inability to predict the distant future can lead to unexpected opportunities and innovation.(more…)
Making decisions under uncertainty is a difficult art. One of the reasons is that the tools and concepts we use are largely designed for risk, for clearly defined and recurring situations. Such tools assume that uncertainty is something to be protected against. This mental model of protection, which seems so logical, is actually counterproductive. What if, on the contrary, we should not protect ourselves (too much) from uncertainty?(more…)
Saras Sarasvathy, the originator of the entrepreneurial theory of effectuation, has just received the prestigious Swedish Global Award for Entrepreneurship Research. Organized since 1996 by the Swedish Foundation for Small Business Research (FSF) and the Swedish Agency for Economic and Regional Growth, the award recognizes researchers who made major contributions to entrepreneurship research. She joins such great researchers as Sidney Winter, Shaker Zahra, Kathleen Eisenhardt, Scott Shane, Israel Kirzner, William Gartner, William Beaumol or Zoltan Acs and David Audretsch. The prize is the recognition of more than twenty years of efforts to promote a radically different approach to entrepreneurship. But its significance goes far beyond that, as effectuation is above all a vision of human action and freedom.(more…)