Fat Tony vs. Dr. John: The challenge of rationality under uncertainty
Can we be rational under uncertainty? Yes, but it depends what you mean by rational.
(more…)Tag: decision making
Welcome to uncertainty ! My new book is out on September 28th
My new book “Welcome to uncertainty!” will be available on September 28th.
The 2008 financial crisis, Brexit, the election of Donald Trump, the Covid-19 epidemic, the invasion of Ukraine, the return of inflation, and what next? The list of surprises keeps growing. Against this backdrop, a new perspective on forecasting is imperative. How can we thrive in a world we can’t predict?
Drawing on the author’s extensive research and real-world insights from working with leaders of all types of organizations, this book :
– Reveals the nature of our unpredictable reality,
– Addresses decision making amidst information scarcity, and
– Equips organizations to thrive in uncertain waters.
Essential reading for leaders, innovators, and those determined to harness the potential of change, this book is your compass in an uncertain and ever-evolving landscape.
📭 ▶️▶️▶️Pre-orders on Amazon are available here.
A 🇫🇷 French version of the book published by Diateino is available here.
How declining organizations create an imaginary double
Organizations in decline tend to create an imaginary double in which they lock themselves. This double is themselves, but in an idealized version. It is a mask that they create to hide and to insulate themselves from a reality that they refuse, letting the world go without them, even against them. The dissolution of this double, i.e. the acceptance of reality, however unpleasant it may be, is a prerequisite for any recovery. A good illustration of this is provided by the Apple turnaround in 1997.
(more…)Why mental models should be the key topic of your next executive seminar
The Covid-19 crisis completely disrupted the strategy of all organizations, reducing plans to nothing. Like any disruption, it corresponded to a process in development whose consequences unfolded, and continue to unfold, progressively on all levels: sanitary, social, economic, but also political and geo-political. It was followed two years later by another disruption, the invasion of Ukraine, which had a similar effect. For organizations, such disruptions impose a complete revision not only of their strategy, but of the way it is defined and of the fundamental beliefs on which the process is based, and in particular on how decisions are made in an organization. It requires a rethink of strategy, management and leadership.
(more…)Rethinking Risk-Taking: Unblocking Innovation by Challenging Mental Models
In the quest for innovation, the encouragement of risk-taking by employees is often ineffective because of entrenched, counterproductive mental models. One example is a successful manufacturing company whose commitment to quality has morphed into a stifling perfectionism that impedes progress. While the organization advocates risk-taking for transformation, it struggles to create change. This article explores the core of this challenge-the ingrained mental models that foster resistance-and advocates a balanced approach that reconciles innovation and stability.
(more…)Building the Organization for Uncertainty: Lessons from The German Army’s Prewar Leadership Model
[version en français ici]
How can an organization not only protect itself from uncertainty, but more importantly take advantage of it? The question is a hot one these days. It preoccupies many strategists, jumping from one crisis to another in a world that has become highly unstable and full of surprises. One source of inspiration, perhaps unexpected, is the German army, which built, from the end of the 19th century, a very powerful leadership model from which we can learn a lot.
(more…)Challenging Cassandra – The two risks of predictions in uncertainty
We live in a time of great uncertainty, where many predictions and strongly held beliefs have been brutally disproved by the facts, especially in the last three years. And yet, we continue to make predictions. This seems rational: we want to protect ourselves against bad surprises and prepare for the worst. But this preparation comes at a significant cost.
(more…)In uncertainty, be a vulnerable leader
Making decisions under uncertainty is a difficult art. One of the reasons is that the tools and concepts we use are largely designed for risk, for clearly defined and recurring situations. Such tools assume that uncertainty is something to be protected against. This mental model of protection, which seems so logical, is actually counterproductive. What if, on the contrary, we should not protect ourselves (too much) from uncertainty?
(more…)Entrepreneurship and human action: Why the award received by Darden’s Saras Sarasvathy is important
Saras Sarasvathy, the originator of the entrepreneurial theory of effectuation, has just received the prestigious Swedish Global Award for Entrepreneurship Research. Organized since 1996 by the Swedish Foundation for Small Business Research (FSF) and the Swedish Agency for Economic and Regional Growth, the award recognizes researchers who made major contributions to entrepreneurship research. She joins such great researchers as Sidney Winter, Shaker Zahra, Kathleen Eisenhardt, Scott Shane, Israel Kirzner, William Gartner, William Beaumol or Zoltan Acs and David Audretsch. The prize is the recognition of more than twenty years of efforts to promote a radically different approach to entrepreneurship. But its significance goes far beyond that, as effectuation is above all a vision of human action and freedom.
(more…)The three (wrong) reasons why you want to motivate your employees in uncertainty
“How do I motivate my employees in uncertain times?” is a common question these days, but the answer is far from simple: it reveals dominant mental models that limit our perspectives. Challenging these models can provide a resilient response to uncertainty.
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