The real lesson from Ukraine: in uncertainty, strategy is a matter of models.

Sticking to an outdated worldview is a universal risk, especially in times of rapid change, and one of the most dangerous. The war in Ukraine is a striking example of this. In just a few years, the battlefield has undergone a complete reinvention: drones are ubiquitous, information is available in real time, and responses occur within minutes. Military certainties that had been solid for decades became obsolete overnight. In a rapidly and unpredictably changing world, the ability to question one’s models is not just a competitive advantage; it’s a matter of survival. This places new demands on strategic thinking for military staff and organizations alike.

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Defending the inner flame in the face of uncertainty: Who will be the Vestals of your organization?

In a world riddled with uncertainty, organizations often falter despite possessing a strong, historical identity—an inner flame that should anchor them. However, this potent force remains underutilized because it’s felt but seldom articulated or embraced. Actively nurturing this core identity is not just beneficial; it’s a strategic imperative.

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Singularity, the ultimate resource in the face of adversity

In times of turmoil and pervasive uncertainty, our instinct is to play it safe. We often retreat, conform to successful norms, and dampen our uniqueness to avoid risks. However, a compelling chapter from Apple’s 1997 turnaround tells a different story: embracing and asserting our distinctiveness might just be the secret to thriving amidst adversity.

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Singularity, the key to your strategy in uncertainty

How do we strategize in times of uncertainty, when the models you’ve relied on in the past are undermined and you face unprecedented challenges? The temptation is to look outside for models, because it’s hard to invent our own, because external models already exist and are presented as self-evident, while we’re weakened by the obsolescence of our own. But we must resist this temptation and embrace our singularity in order to build our own response.

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Should Strategists Take Baths? The Byzantine Empire’s Lesson in Surviving Uncertainty

Why do some organizations survive and thrive while others falter? The question has long been asked, and the proposed answers are many, but one factor that seems to play a very strong role is the ability to maintain a creative connection with the changing reality of one’s environment. A historical example is the survival of the Byzantine Empire.

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Welcome to uncertainty ! My new book is out on September 28th

My new book “Welcome to uncertainty!” will be available on September 28th.

The 2008 financial crisis, Brexit, the election of Donald Trump, the Covid-19 epidemic, the invasion of Ukraine, the return of inflation, and what next? The list of surprises keeps growing. Against this backdrop, a new perspective on forecasting is imperative. How can we thrive in a world we can’t predict?

Drawing on the author’s extensive research and real-world insights from working with leaders of all types of organizations, this book :

– Reveals the nature of our unpredictable reality,

– Addresses decision making amidst information scarcity, and

– Equips organizations to thrive in uncertain waters.

Essential reading for leaders, innovators, and those determined to harness the potential of change, this book is your compass in an uncertain and ever-evolving landscape.

📭 ▶️▶️▶️Pre-orders on Amazon are available here.

A 🇫🇷 French version of the book published by Diateino is available here.