forecasting Archives - Philippe Silberzahn

22 September 202323 September 2023innovation

How Identity Shapes Technological Predictions: Lessons from The Thery Report of 1994

If you think forecasting is rational and objective, based on facts and data generated by dispassionate experts, think again. In fact, what we predict reflects who we are. A case in point is Théry Report on the Internet. It provides a fascinating case study of the dangerous interplay between expertise, identity, and technological foresight.

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25 August 20236 September 2023Economy and society, uncertainty

The Pitfall of Assumptions in Forecasting: Lessons from “Losing the War with Japan”

In the realm of economic and geopolitical forecasting, the pitfalls of assumptions can prove both humbling and enlightening. A striking example of this can be found in the Frontline report titled “Losing the War with Japan,” which takes us back to a moment in 1991 when prevailing beliefs about Japan’s economic supremacy and America’s decline were pervasive.

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