Management of uncertainty Archives

22 April 202410 June 2024Management, strategy, uncertainty

Defending the inner flame in the face of uncertainty: Who will be the Vestals of your organization?

In a world riddled with uncertainty, organizations often falter despite possessing a strong, historical identity—an inner flame that should anchor them. However, this potent force remains underutilized because it’s felt but seldom articulated or embraced. Actively nurturing this core identity is not just beneficial; it’s a strategic imperative.

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16 September 202317 September 2023strategy, uncertainty

Should Strategists Take Baths? The Byzantine Empire’s Lesson in Surviving Uncertainty

Why do some organizations survive and thrive while others falter? The question has long been asked, and the proposed answers are many, but one factor that seems to play a very strong role is the ability to maintain a creative connection with the changing reality of one’s environment. A historical example is the survival of the Byzantine Empire.

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5 September 20236 September 2023strategy, uncertainty

The Limitations of Scenarios in an Uncertain World

How do we prepare for an uncertain future? Scenarios offer a way by describing plausible future situations, broadening our perspective and readiness for potential developments. While scenarios provide insight, it’s important to recognize their inherent limitations when dealing with uncertainty.

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15 April 202011 February 2022Strategic surprise, uncertainty

Covid-19: Four Rules for the Decision-Maker to Work with Experts in the Face of an Unprecedented Event

[Version française disponible ici]

The situation has become familiar with the covid-19 epidemics, and in particular with the controversy over the use of chloroquine: everyone has an opinion and groups are being formed in favor or against it. Yet regularly, people are being called to order by others who demand that only experts should be allowed to talk on issues relating to the management of the epidemy. The message seems to have been heard: for the past three weeks, doctors have been massively present on television sets. The country has become a large proxy medical consultation room. But the question remains: faced with a complex and unprecedented situation such as the coronavirus, who has the right to speak out? To what extent can experts be trusted? More importantly, how can the decision-maker work with them?

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12 March 202031 January 2023Management, Strategic surprise, uncertainty

What the Covid-19 Tells us About the Management of Uncertainty

The coronavirus, which is currently causing a major international crisis, is one of those unprecedented events that are taking us by surprise by making all the forecasters lie who, only three months ago for the New Year, were telling us what 2020 would be like. Should we be afraid of the virus? This is the question that each of us is asking, torn between the worry of not taking seriously what could turn out to be the epidemic of the Century and the fear of giving in to panic if its impact proves to be only modest, as Dr. Eric Caumes, head of the infectious diseases department at the French Hospital Pitie-Salpetriere, who recently declared: “If you are not afraid of the flu (up to 10.000 deaths/year in France), why are you afraid of the coronavirus?” This seems to make sense, and yet the comparison is not legitimate, because it ignores a very important distinction, that between risk and uncertainty, which a decision-maker must absolutely understand.

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