The causes of a society’s decline are often internal. It declines because it maintains or adopts beliefs that prevent it from adapting to a changing world. When a crisis weakens its model, it is tempted to adopt external beliefs that promise an easy solution. These can prove fatal. This is what happened to Europe. Over the past twenty years or so, it has convinced itself that it must sacrifice its industry and agriculture and abandon technological progress to save the environment. This belief is toxic and must be reconsidered if Europe is to halt its decline.
At the end of the 19th century, the Xhosa people (from whom Nelson Mandela is descended) in the Cape region of South Africa suffered a series of setbacks at the hands of British colonists. Their livestock was contaminated by a disease introduced by the arrival of European cattle. One disaster followed another, leaving the Xhosa weakened and disoriented, unable to explain what was happening. In 1856, Nongqawuse, a young local girl, claimed to have received a prophecy from her ancestors. According to it, the Xhosa must slaughter all their livestock and destroy all their crops and food reserves in order to cleanse the land and usher in a golden age in which the dead will rise, the British colonizers will be driven out, and prosperity will return. Despite strong initial reluctance and a persistent inability to explain what is happening, more and more Xhosa cling to the prophecy in the hope of being saved. The king himself slaughters first his favorite ox, a highly symbolic action, and then all his cattle. In his wake, thousands of people slaughter their livestock and destroy their crops. But the prophecy does not come true. We don’t know what happened to Nongqawuse, but the destruction of livestock and crops led to a famine that killed some 40,000 people. This catastrophe weakened the Xhosa nation forever, leaving the survivors dependent on the British, who could easily consolidate their control over the area.
Societies sick and dying of their beliefs
Like the Xhosa, societies are sick and dying of their beliefs. A collective is structured around mental models or shared beliefs. These are developed to make sense of their environment and to take action. Tens of thousands of years ago, our ancestors were afraid of thunderstorms. They needed an explanation. So they developed the belief that storms happened because the gods were angry. We now know that this is not true, but it worked for them: they made some sacrifices, they promised to behave better, and the storm eventually stopped anyway. They were reassured because they could make sense of an otherwise inexplicable phenomenon. This is how we have empirically developed effective beliefs that allow us to live in an uncertain world. Some things work, even if we can’t explain why.
Beliefs are essential to action, but they can also be a limiting factor, preventing a society from adapting to the new conditions it encounters. Moreover, they play an especially important role when a society faces a major crisis, as was the case with the Xhosas. When historical beliefs can’t explain the crisis, the society is seriously weakened. It will therefore search for new beliefs to resolve the crisis. This fragility and the search for external beliefs is often the fortune of gurus, messiahs, and ideologues who offer a ready-made explanation that, when you’re in disarray, is very tempting to accept with your eyes closed. The greater the perceived crisis, the greater the susceptibility to external beliefs. The door is wide open for the Trojan Horse.
Europe, the victim of toxic beliefs
It’s hard not to think of Europe when you discover the sad story of the Xhosa. For some thirty years, Europe has been convinced that it must sacrifice its industry and agriculture and renounce technological progress in order to save the environment. In 2019, like a modern-day Nongqawuse, Greta Thunberg, a young Swedish environmental activist, shouted “I want you to panic!” to stunned world leaders, threatening them with an environmental apocalypse. And they panicked, especially in Europe and especially in France. What followed was a ritual sacrifice of our agriculture and industry, and a renunciation of technological progress, in the hope of appeasing the gods by purifying ourselves to demonstrate our virtue. Like the Xhosa, Europe today risks becoming the vassal of countries that, on the contrary, will have mobilized science, technology and economics to solve the environmental crisis, but whose intentions towards us will probably be no more peaceful than those of the British colonists. While the consequences of this toxic belief are already being felt, we must hope that Europe is capable of a rapid turnaround. Its survival depends on it.
🔎 The Xhosa story is taken from the book Sick Societies by Robert Edgerton.
🇫🇷 A version in French of this article is available here.
✚ More on the topic of decline and the role of mental models: The lessons of Greenland’s settlers: Mental Models, Change, and Identity in Transformation.
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