Tag: mental models

innovation

Are mental models the key to the next stage of AI?

Despite its spectacular results, particularly since ChatGPT’s release in 2022, AI faces a significant structural limitation today: it relies on superficial statistical correlations rather than a profound comprehension of the laws of reality. AI is incapable of true causal reasoning, resulting in logical hallucinations and an inability to plan complex tasks over the long term. This lack of internal structure renders learning extremely inefficient, necessitating vast amounts of data when a human would require only a few examples to comprehend and predict a new situation. It is precisely this idea of “internal structure” that could enable the next big step in AI: the use of mental models.

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Economy and society, Society

Progress versus the environment: the toxic belief that condemns Europe

The causes of a society’s decline are often internal. It declines because it maintains or adopts beliefs that prevent it from adapting to a changing world. When a crisis weakens its model, it is tempted to adopt external beliefs that promise an easy solution. These can prove fatal. This is what happened to Europe. Over the past twenty years or so, it has convinced itself that it must sacrifice its industry and agriculture and abandon technological progress to save the environment. This belief is toxic and must be reconsidered if Europe is to halt its decline.

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Strategic surprise

How do strategic surprises happen? Lessons from 9/11


22 years ago, on September 11, 2001, the world watched in horror as two planes crashed into the World Trade Center in New York in one of the most spectacular terrorist attacks ever. Behind this immense tragedy, whose geopolitical consequences are still being felt today, lies the failure of the American intelligence apparatus, and the CIA in particular. Despite all the information at its disposal, the CIA failed to anticipate the attack. What explains this failure?

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