Category: decision making

decision making, uncertainty

Challenging Cassandra – The two risks of predictions in uncertainty

We live in a time of great uncertainty, where many predictions and strongly held beliefs have been brutally disproved by the facts, especially in the last three years. And yet, we continue to make predictions. This seems rational: we want to protect ourselves against bad surprises and prepare for the worst. But this preparation comes at a significant cost.

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decision making, entrepreneurship, innovation

Why you need to be (a little) conservative to innovate and change the world

How does great innovation truly happen? This question often kicks off discussions on innovation, with many expecting the classic tale of a visionary entrepreneur sparking a revolution. However, this idealized notion of a sudden “big bang” innovation can be problematic, leading to either a sense of resignation or a rush into monumental projects that often yield little. In reality, even disruptive innovation typically progresses incrementally, building upon past efforts and grounded in existing conditions.

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decision making, Economy and society, innovation, strategy, uncertainty

Redefining strategy for uncertain times: Learning from Apple’s 1997 Turnaround

The Covid shock in the spring of 2020 shattered strategic plans. The continuing uncertainty, exacerbated two years later by the invasion of Ukraine, has led some executives to question the very possibility of having a strategy when everything keeps changing. Are we living in a post-strategy world? The short answer is no; we need strategy more than ever, but it depends on how you define strategy. The Apple turnaround in 1997 provides a useful lesson.

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decision making, uncertainty

Frank Knight’s century-old wisdom on risk, uncertainty, and profit

What can we learn from a little-known economist’s book published exactly a century ago? Quite a lot. Is it useful for us today? Yes, very. It turns out that Risk, Uncertainty and Profit, published by Frank Knight in 1921, is an essential book, even if it is difficult to read. It is the first book to really define uncertainty and show what it means in decision making and how it explains profit.

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decision making

The public decision-maker in uncertainty: towards the technical democracy

The generalized uncertainty in which our societies are immersed, combined with their growing complexity, undermines the authority of experts whose knowledge is more easily questioned. This is particularly true for public decision-makers, who are now faced with systematic challenges to their decisions, whatever the field. Understanding the causes and stakes of what some call “technical democracy”, but also its potential dangers, is becoming essential.

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