Tag Archives: Strategic surprise

How crises disrupt our mental models and what that means

The Covid-19 epidemics constitutes a major event that completely disrupted world life, rendering all forecasts and plans based on them obsolete within a few weeks. The very nature of a surprise is to bring to light an element of our mental models and invalidate it. Because a disruption is a process, the effects of the virus on sanitary, social, economic, business, and political dimensions unfold progressively and over a long period.

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Putin, Ukraine and the paradox of strategy

[Version in French]

Strategy is a complex art governed by a paradoxical logic where failure can lead to success and vice versa. The Russian attack on Ukraine offers a good illustration of this nature.

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Responding to the Covid-19 Crisis: Three Courses of Action for a CEO

[Version française ici]

In these times of coronavirus epidemic, I have the opportunity to talk to people from very different backgrounds (emergency doctors, researchers, self-employed people, entrepreneurs, retirees, business leaders, etc.) to understand how they “live” the current crisis both personally and professionally. From these discussions, I can draw three courses of action that a CEO can usefully adopt in the face of the extreme and unprecedented situation we are experiencing. Continue reading

The Four Things that the Covid-19 Reminds Us About Decision Making in Uncertainty

The unexpected emergence of the coronavirus and its uncertain consequences remind us of four things that we should have known, or that we knew but did not apply about the environment in which we live: the unpredictability of the future, the difference between risk and uncertainty, the non-linearity of the evolution of the world, and the social construction of surprises.

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My new Forbes piece: Without An Opinion, You’re Just Another Person With Data

My new Forbes piece, written with Milo Jones, is a take on W. Edwards Deming’s words: “Without data you’re just a person with an opinion.” In fact, in a big data world, it might just be the opposite: without an opinion, you’re just a person with data and you are in trouble. Read it here.