Tag: mental model

Economy and society

The Mental Model as a Prediction Machine: How Sapiens Invented the Tool That Converts Uncertainty into Risk

We believe we describe the world; in fact, we predict it. Every judgment we make – about a colleague, a customer, an organization – is an implicit bet on what will happen next. This mechanism, invented by Sapiens to convert uncertainty into risk, explains both our extraordinary capacity for action and our current disarray: our prediction machines are still running, but they predict less and less well.

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strategy

The real lesson from Ukraine: in uncertainty, strategy is a matter of models.

Sticking to an outdated worldview is a universal risk, especially in times of rapid change, and one of the most dangerous. The war in Ukraine is a striking example of this. In just a few years, the battlefield has undergone a complete reinvention: drones are ubiquitous, information is available in real time, and responses occur within minutes. Military certainties that had been solid for decades became obsolete overnight. In a rapidly and unpredictably changing world, the ability to question one’s models is not just a competitive advantage; it’s a matter of survival. This places new demands on strategic thinking for military staff and organizations alike.

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Society

Trapped in our beliefs: the (true) lesson of the MAGA mind

In an ideal world, the presentation of objective facts should naturally lead individuals to revise their beliefs. But experience tells us a very different reality: we are trapped in our beliefs and opinions, even absurd ones, and we often remain unshaken in the face of contrary evidence. Donald Trump’s MAGA (Make America Great Again) electoral base is an extreme textbook case that fascinates researchers. But, as always, there is a “but…”, and the lesson is not what it seems.

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entrepreneurship, innovation, Management, strategy

How innovators negotiate entrenched mental models. Lessons from Thomas Edison

Innovation, the driving force behind progress, often faces a formidable adversary: entrenched mental models. These cognitive frameworks shape our understanding of the world and can become barriers to the acceptance of breakthrough ideas. Managing the dynamic between innovation and prevailing mental models is the innovator’s challenge. Thomas Edison’s promotion of electric lighting over gas provides an example of how this challenge was successfully met.

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decision making, Management, strategy

Why mental models should be the key topic of your next executive seminar

The Covid-19 crisis completely disrupted the strategy of all organizations, reducing plans to nothing. Like any disruption, it corresponded to a process in development whose consequences unfolded, and continue to unfold, progressively on all levels: sanitary, social, economic, but also political and geo-political. It was followed two years later by another disruption, the invasion of Ukraine, which had a similar effect. For organizations, such disruptions impose a complete revision not only of their strategy, but of the way it is defined and of the fundamental beliefs on which the process is based, and in particular on how decisions are made in an organization. It requires a rethink of strategy, management and leadership.

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Economy and society, innovation

Why rich peoples’ whims are useful for innovation

What do rich people do when they are bored? They embark on an innovation project. Conquer Mars, cross the Atlantic, extend human life, invent fundamental artificial intelligence, create a robot, etc. As an expression of their promoters’ ego, these projects are often considered useless and qualified as whims, i.e. a capricious and unreasonable envy. But is it so sure? What if (some of) the whims of today were the useful innovations of tomorrow? What if we should be careful not to pass moral judgment on both what is being done (useless!) and on those who are doing it (the rich and their whims)?

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